Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future....

A lovely quote that I use in as many presentations as I can is from Arthur C. Clarke 


"If we have leaned one thing from the history of invention and discovery, it is that, in the long run - and often the short one - the most daring prophecies seem laughably conservative".

He wrote this in 1951 but it's never been more true.

Check out this Newsweek article from 1995 (Clifford Stoll) about how over blown the Internet was...

http://www.newsweek.com/1995/02/26/the-internet-bah.html


And I quote....

"They speak of electronic town meetings and virtual communities. Commerce and business will shift from offices and malls to networks and modems. And the freedom of digital networks will make government more democratic.


Baloney. Do our computer pundits lack all common sense? The truth in no online database will replace your daily newspaper, no CD-ROM can take the place of a competent teacher and no computer network will change the way government works."


Hee hee.

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